By Dr John Latham
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Extra info for A Scheme For Global Warming Mitigation Via Controlled Enhancement Of The Reflectivity Of Maritime Clouds
7B for NY important for contingent business interruption. 4 Trillion World Insurance Market • • • • World’s biggest industry; important to economic development Large employer Major player in financial markets Enormous political influence 2005 Source: Swiss Re, Sigma No. 5/2005 Disasters Look Different Through an Insurance “Lens” Aggregate Global Impacts: 1980-2004 Source: E. ) Non-climate factors play a role, but… $2004 insured losses $2004 total non-weather-related natural-disaster losses 20 $2004 property insurance premiums $2004 GDP population • Trends consistent with observed change • Why are non-weather losses level?
Small-scale, Indirect Events and Consequences Often Overlooked Events Greater combined impacts than CATs in an average year • • • • • • • • • • • Drought Hail Heat waves Ice Storms Lightning Sea-level rise Thunderstorms Tornados Torrential rains Wildfire Winterstorms Consequences • Blackouts • Coastal erosion • Crop/fishery damages • Equipment breakdown • Eroded air quality • Eroded water quality • Flooding • Health impacts • Mudslides • Property loss • Sinkholes/Subsidence • Weather-related vehicle accidents Temperature-Related Insurance Loss Experience Lightning-related claims accelerate with temperature Each symbol represents a lightning storm event Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.
How fast? – How gradual/abrupt? – Feedbacks • Positive • Negative – Geography of impacts – Gaps in models (especially cryosphere) – Society’s ability to adapt – Attribution of Impacts Climate Contrarians: An Endangered Species Source: Krispy Creme Contrarians • Cherry-picking – point to the one glacier that is holding its own rather than the 99 that are receding – comparing isolated Medieval Warming in one area to current warming in virtually all regions of world • Red Herrings – The earth has been warm before • Pre-civilization • Sea-level was 80 feet higher • Oh, and by the way, for different reasons • • • • Lack of data or models equated with disproof Personal attacks Egoism Self-censorship What is the prognosis for the future?
A Scheme For Global Warming Mitigation Via Controlled Enhancement Of The Reflectivity Of Maritime Clouds by Dr John Latham